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Cardiovascular risk

Heart Age and 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk

Four published risk equations, each with its own cohort, era and geography. You pick the model; the page shows you what that choice did to the answer.

Formula lll-cvd-risk-1.0.07 sources6 stated limitationsClinical estimate

This page has no named medical reviewer on file. The equation it implements is published and cited below, but the page itself has not been signed off by a member of the review board, and we do not present it as if it had been.

Enter your numbers

15 questions. Questions that only apply to some people appear once your earlier answers decide that they do.

From your health data

7 of these questions can be answered from lab results and device data you have already connected: Age, Sex at birth, Total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, Systolic blood pressure, eGFR, Body mass index. Connect them once in your member account and they arrive here pre-filled and labelled as coming from your health data — and you can always type over the value.

Set up health data in your member account

This public page never reads your health data. Pre-filling happens inside the signed-in app, which is a separate, access-controlled surface.

Heart Age and 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk inputs
Which model should we use?

Risk models are calibrated to populations. Choose the one for where you live.

Have you had a heart attack, stroke, TIA, angina, stent, bypass or heart failure?

These models estimate the risk of a first event only.

Sex at birthFrom your health data — connect to fill this automatically

Used because the reference data and published equations are sex-specific. If your sex at birth differs from your gender, the equations were derived on sex-at-birth cohorts.

From your health data — connect to fill this automatically

A US lab reporting 200 mg/dL is about 5.2 mmol/L. Enter this in mg/dL. We convert it to mmol/L{cholesterol} for the formula.

From your health data — connect to fill this automatically

A US lab reporting 50 mg/dL is about 1.3 mmol/L. Enter this in mg/dL. We convert it to mmol/L{cholesterol} for the formula.

From your health data — connect to fill this automatically

Use the average of several readings, not a single one.

Are you taking blood-pressure medication?
Do you currently smoke?

PREVENT counts any cigarette use in the last 30 days.

Do you have diabetes?

More questions will appear once the answers above decide which ones apply.

Nothing you type is stored unless you are signed in and ask us to save it.

How this is calculated

Formula version lll-cvd-risk-1.0.0

The member selects a model. PREVENT (AHA 2024) is a logistic re-expression of competing-risk survival models for total CVD, ASCVD and heart failure, takes kidney function and treatment status, and excludes race. The Pooled Cohort Equations (2013) give hard ASCVD risk as 1 - S0^exp(sum - mean) from log-transformed predictors within four race-sex strata. SCORE2 (ESC 2021) computes a centred linear predictor, converts it with a sex-specific baseline survival, then recalibrates to one of four European risk regions; SCORE2-OP does the same for ages 70 and over with its own centring and a mean-linear-predictor offset. QRISK3 is offered as a choice but deliberately returns no number. Heart age is derived by solving the selected model for the age at which a same-sex person with optimal risk factors carries the member's risk.

What it cannot do

  • QRISK3 is not implemented. UK members are told so explicitly and pointed at the official calculator rather than given an approximation.
  • The SCORE2 and PREVENT coefficient tables live in paywalled supplements. Each value here was cross-checked across independent public implementations that agree digit for digit, and each model is pinned to a worked example published in its own paper — except SCORE2-OP, for which no published worked example could be located.
  • The Pooled Cohort Equations overestimate risk in contemporary populations and take race as an input; both are stated in the output.
  • Heart age is an LLL derivation, not a published output of any of these models.
  • SCORE2 is not intended for people with diabetes, and SCORE2-Diabetes is not implemented here.
  • None of the models includes Lp(a), coronary calcium, family history, deprivation or inflammatory disease.

Sources

  1. SCORE2 working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration. SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms. Eur Heart J 2021;42(25):2439-2454DOI 10.1093/eurheartj/ehab309 (opens in a new tab)PMID 34120177 (opens in a new tab)
  2. SCORE2-OP working group. SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms. Eur Heart J 2021;42(25):2455-2467DOI 10.1093/eurheartj/ehab312 (opens in a new tab)PMID 34120185 (opens in a new tab)
  3. Goff DC Jr et al. 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk, Appendix 7. Circulation 2014;129(25 Suppl 2):S49-S73DOI 10.1161/01.cir.0000437741.48606.98 (opens in a new tab)PMID 24222018 (opens in a new tab)
  4. Khan SS et al. Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations. Circulation 2024;149(6):430-449DOI 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.067626 (opens in a new tab)PMID 37947085 (opens in a new tab)
  5. D'Agostino RB Sr et al. General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation 2008;117(6):743-753DOI 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.107.699579 (opens in a new tab)PMID 18212285 (opens in a new tab)
  6. DeFilippis AP et al. An analysis of calibration and discrimination among multiple cardiovascular risk scores in a modern multiethnic cohort. Ann Intern Med 2015;162(4):266-275DOI 10.7326/M14-1281 (opens in a new tab)PMID 25686167 (opens in a new tab)
  7. Yadlowsky S et al. Clinical Implications of Revised Pooled Cohort Equations. Ann Intern Med 2018;169(1):20-29DOI 10.7326/M17-3011 (opens in a new tab)PMID 29868850 (opens in a new tab)

The formula version is pinned so that a result you saved or shared can be reproduced. When we change a coefficient, the version changes and old results stay attributed to the version that produced them.

Questions people ask

Which model should I use?
Use the one your clinician uses, because that is the one your care will be decided on. PREVENT for the US, SCORE2 for Europe. If you want to understand your risk rather than act on it, run two and look at the gap.
Why is "heart age" not a real age?
It is a translation device: the age at which someone with textbook-average risk factors would carry the risk your factors produce. It is easier to act on than a percentage, and it is not a measurement of your heart.
Why is QRISK3 not implemented?
Because we do not have a licensed, reproducible implementation of its coefficients, and inventing them would produce a number that looks authoritative and is not. The tool says so rather than substituting a different model silently.
The result changed a lot when I changed one input. Is that a bug?
No. Risk equations are steep in age and systolic pressure by design. It is a reason to treat any single run as one point in a range, which is why the interval is shown next to the number.