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Fitness

VO2max Estimator and Percentile

VO2max is the single best-evidenced fitness predictor of all-cause mortality. This estimates it from what you can answer at a desk, and tells you how far that estimate can be trusted.

Formula lll-vo2max-1.0.05 sources6 stated limitations

This page has no named medical reviewer on file. The equation it implements is published and cited below, but the page itself has not been signed off by a member of the review board, and we do not present it as if it had been.

Enter your numbers

8 questions. Questions that only apply to some people appear once your earlier answers decide that they do.

From your health data

6 of these questions can be answered from lab results and device data you have already connected: Age, Sex at birth, Your VO2max, Body fat, if you know it, Height, Weight. Connect them once in your member account and they arrive here pre-filled and labelled as coming from your health data — and you can always type over the value.

Set up health data in your member account

This public page never reads your health data. Pre-filling happens inside the signed-in app, which is a separate, access-controlled surface.

VO2max Estimator and Percentile inputs
Sex at birthFrom your health data — connect to fill this automatically

Used because the reference data and published equations are sex-specific. If your sex at birth differs from your gender, the equations were derived on sex-at-birth cohorts.

Where does your VO2max come from?

More questions will appear once the answers above decide which ones apply.

Nothing you type is stored unless you are signed in and ask us to save it.

How this is calculated

Formula version lll-vo2max-1.0.0

A measured or wearable VO2max is taken as given. Where no test exists, VO2max is estimated with the Jackson 1990 non-exercise equations: the percent-body-fat model when body fat is known (SEE 5.3 mL/kg/min), otherwise the BMI model (SEE 5.6). The value is then placed against the FRIEND registry 2015 treadmill percentile table for the member's sex and age decade, by linear interpolation between published percentile anchors. Outside the published anchors the percentile is censored to a bound rather than extrapolated, and outside ages 20-79 no percentile is given at all.

What it cannot do

  • The verbatim wording of the published physical-activity-rating categories could not be verified; three reproductions disagree. Our labels are a paraphrase and this is a real source of error worth about 1.9 mL/kg/min per level. See GAPS.md.
  • The non-exercise standard error, about 5.6 mL/kg/min, is wider than some whole percentile bands.
  • The FRIEND 2015 reference population is US clinical exercise laboratories, not a general population sample.
  • The 2015 (VO2max) and 2022 (VO2peak) FRIEND tables are different cohorts on different percentile grids and are deliberately not mixed; using the 2022 tables would shift percentiles.
  • Cycle-ergometer values are typically 10-15% lower than treadmill values and are not comparable with the treadmill table.
  • Wearable estimates have device-specific and firmware-specific bias that is not quantified here.

Sources

  1. Jackson AS et al. Prediction of functional aerobic capacity without exercise testing. Med Sci Sports Exerc 1990;22(6):863-870PMID 2287267 (opens in a new tab)
  2. Kaminsky LA, Arena R, Myers J. Reference Standards for Cardiorespiratory Fitness Measured With Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing (FRIEND). Mayo Clin Proc 2015;90(11):1515-1523DOI 10.1016/j.mayocp.2015.07.026 (opens in a new tab)PMID 26455884 (opens in a new tab)
  3. Kaminsky LA et al. Updated Reference Standards for Cardiorespiratory Fitness Measured with Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing (FRIEND). Mayo Clin Proc 2022;97(2):285-293DOI 10.1016/j.mayocp.2021.08.020 (opens in a new tab)PMID 34809986 (opens in a new tab)
  4. Peterman JE et al. Accuracy of Nonexercise Prediction Equations for Assessing Longitudinal Changes to Cardiorespiratory Fitness: BALL ST Cohort. J Am Heart Assoc 2020;9(11):e015117DOI 10.1161/JAHA.119.015117 (opens in a new tab)PMID 32476602 (opens in a new tab)
  5. Nes BM et al. Estimating VO2peak from a nonexercise prediction model: the HUNT Study, Norway. Med Sci Sports Exerc 2011;43(11):2024-2030DOI 10.1249/MSS.0b013e31821d3f6f (opens in a new tab)PMID 21502897 (opens in a new tab)

The formula version is pinned so that a result you saved or shared can be reproduced. When we change a coefficient, the version changes and old results stay attributed to the version that produced them.

Questions people ask

How accurate is a non-exercise VO2max estimate?
The published standard error of estimate for non-exercise equations is roughly 5 mL/kg/min. That is about one percentile band. The estimate is useful for tracking a large change over a year; it is not useful for comparing yourself with someone else.
Should I get a real test instead?
If you are making a training or clinical decision, yes. A graded exercise test with gas analysis is the reference standard. This tool exists because most people will never have one, not because it is equivalent to one.